The data releases for Q3.24 and Q4.24 to date are supportive of an outcome of 1.0% y/y for this year’s GDP growth, with Q3.24’s GDP figure due to be published next week, and likely near 0.5% qqsa (quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted).
Q3.24 has seen very mixed outcomes for the different sectors, and subsector of GDP, with opposing data outcomes as some areas contracted heavily, while others expanded. The latest Bloomberg Q3.24 forecast is 0.4% qqsa, Investec 0.5% qqsa.
The Bloomberg consensus has not changed for the year, at 1.0% y/y as well, along with the IMF’s most current view on the GDP growth outcome also at 1.0% y/y for South Africa in 2024, marginally up on 2023’s 0.7% y/y.
The IMF notes in its conclusion of 2024’s article IV mission that the “Government of National Unity (GNU), in place since June 2024, represents an opportunity to put South Africa’s economy on a path toward higher and more inclusive growth.”
“The GNU faces massive long-standing challenges: eroding standards of living, unacceptably high levels of unemployment, poverty, and inequality … and rising public debt and debt servicing costs, which crowd out critical spending needs.”
“At the same time, South Africa’s diversified economy, abundant mineral wealth, flexible exchange rate, credible inflation-targeting framework, deep financial markets, and ability to issue domestic-currency debt are sources of strength.”
“The fresh mandate of the GNU offers an historic opportunity to build on these strengths and pursue ambitious reforms to safeguard macroeconomic stability and address impediments to growth to achieve higher standards of living for all”.
“Real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 1.1 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2025, driven by recovering domestic demand supported by renewed post-election confidence, improved power generation” with no load shedding since end of March.
“The outlook is improving, driven by recovering domestic demand supported by renewed post-election confidence, improved power generation (with no loadshedding since end-March), and declining interest rates”.
